AVAS Analysis: Tourism arrivals expected to cross 1.3 mln

The Maldives government estimates that tourist arrival numbers will reach one million by the end of the year. However, based on new calculations, it is likely that the number of tourists arriving in the Maldives would exceed the target. AVAS estimates that 1.3 million tourists will visit the country this year.

According to the current figures of the Ministry of Tourism, 900,808 tourists have arrived in the Maldives thus far this year. Currently, about 4,000 tourists arrive in the archipelago daily.

With five months remaining in the year, AVAS' current estimate is that the number of tourists arriving in the Maldives will exceed one million by September.

Flights to the Maldives are expected to increase from October this year, owing to the upcoming winter season. Based on last year's tourism trend, it is estimated that daily arrival numbers will increase from October, reaching 5,000 by November.

If daily arrivals increase to this number, the number of total arrivals will increase significantly. India is currently the top source market for Maldives' tourism, mostly due to "easy access" to the Maldives through several airlines. The current estimate is that the number of Indian tourists will continue to grow unabated. The trend in Indian booking websites points to the same forecast. While 132,151 tourists have visited the Maldives from India thus far this year, this is 14 percent of the source market.

Arrivals from the United Kingdom, which is the Maldives' oldest and most traditional source market, is also expected to increase. As per the current numbers, the UK possesses 11 percent of the source market, with 104,667 arrivals from the European country thus far.

AVAS' analysis based on the opinion of tourism experts shows that the UK market is likely to top the list in December this year. The Russian market is also expected to increase by the end of the year.