New coalition: an exercise in futility?

Today a fresh coalition will emerge, formed between the leaders of various opposition groups. What is certain is the new coalition will pose a fresh challenge to the Government. Former President Mohamed Nasheed, currently on asylum from the UK, described this coalition is a strong signal against the Government. He said the coalition will be a coalition that would be accepted by the international community.

The coalition that would be formed today is formed by seasoned veterans in the country's political field. At one time or the other these veterans had crossed paths and exchanged heavy blows. But would this coalition have the capability to change the political landscape?

Coalition's bitter after taste

This is not the first time Maldives had taken up a coalition. The first coalition, mother of all coalitions, was formed in the second round of the 2008 Presidential elections. The "Wathan Edhey Gothah" coalition was a heady medley of MDP, Adhaalath Party, Qaumee Party and Jumhooree Party. The coalition was successful in defeating former President Maumoon Abdul Qayyoom in the elections. However, the coalition proved ineffective against running the nation together. Divisions appeared and in the chaos and protests against the Government, saw the resignation of Nasheed on February 7, 2012.

"The purpose of the United Opposition Coalition is to make the Government more accountable and transparent as a responsible opposition. We want to first ensure there is a free election," he said.

The current Government rose to power through the JP-PPM Coalition. JP Leader Qasim Ibrahim and the Party left the Government to work against the Government a few weeks after the Government was sworn in. The opposition coalition that formed with JP against the current Government also disintegrated.

"So far the coalition experience has been bitter, none of them have worked. Past conflicts and mistrust rise and disintegrates whatever new coalition that forms. In Maldives we follow a multi-party system, which in itself proves difficult for coalitions to successfully function," a political figure said.

The coalition experiences had divided the nation and the coalition more than presenting a united forum for the nation's progress. The coalition is composed of political heavy weights, who at one time or the other at their careers exchanged heavy blows. Will they be able to stomach former VP as the leader of the coalition? How will this experience pan out?

Jameel as leader!

Appointment of Dr. Jameel as the leader of the coalition is almost confirmed. Arguably, there are bigger heavy weights in the political field than Dr. Jameel. But even Nasheed had thrown his weight behind Dr. Jameel this time. However, up until now, Dr. Jameel has not been able to maintain his loyalty to a fixed group. Ask a common man and he would define Dr. Jameel as a political prostitute. As a man who had been changing his political alliances, when fair winds blow, is it really not surprising that the decision to make him the leader of the coalition had attracted the anger and disappointment of MDP loyalists and most of the citizens.

Most of MDP had objected, both in the past and now, for a leadership without Nasheed at the helm. Dr. Jameel's words that he "will not hand over power [to Nasheed] even if elected" still resounds with the party grassroots.

A senior figure of MDP said they can work with Dr. Jameel. All they want, the individual said was to rectify the issues in the country, even if it means compromising on core issues. Nasheed had made the decision as Dr. Jameel was more experience and had the same views: to reform the nation. If this is the case, then MDP progressing with Dr. Jameel should not be a difficult endeavor.

"Jameel had worked on the reform agenda. He was instrumental in bringing an end to the 30 years of Maumoon's leadership. Based on this, he is the best choice for now. We can progress ahead," the view from MDP leadership is this.

However, Dr. Jameel's characteristic traits such as stubbornness and obstinacy was a core reason for the disintegration of previous coalitions. Due to this many have said this coalition experience would also be bitter.

Nasheed on the bench team! What next?

Undeniably, Nasheed is one of the most influential characteristics in the political field. He is a seasoned politician, with extensive ties to international players and this has been mirrored by MDP as well. Nasheed began MDP in the open environment of UK and Sri Lanka. History does repeat itself; Nasheed is now back in UK, once again beginning a reform agenda that is backed by a stronger team, according to him. But a bigger question begs to be answered right now. Why is Nasheed allowing an opponent, especially such a polarizing opponent, to helm the initiative?

A PPM MP had a football analogy on the question. In a match, a forward will be benched on account of injury or disciplinary action. So far Nasheed has been a proactive player, a fast moving forward, guiding the political landscape of the nation. Perhaps he is taking the back bench due to his 13 year jail sentence on terror charges. But, the MP said that Nasheed taking a back seat in a coalition that reportedly will shake the nation to the core, was difficult to accept.

He surmised that this was the end of the road for Nasheed's political career. Perhaps Nasheed is entertaining the idea of removing himself from the political arena. But this is not likely to happen anytime soon. The other option is that may be Nasheed himself has no faith whether the coalition would survive.

Nasheed in the shadows of a powerful coalition is not acceptable by the majority of MDP, the idea of rallying behind Dr. Jameel is more repugnant to them. Therefore, it is more likely that this would divide the party more. Hence, the powerful coalition maybe more bark than bite.

"Without Nasheed's leadership, it may not be that powerful. But it Nasheed leads, it could become more unified and effective. Maybe he's decided to wait for now," PPM member said. As of now, it is too soon to determine if Nasheed's status will have an impact on the coalition.

No official word from the Government

The Government is yet to make a statement on the coalition.

"Bring out the coalition. Take a look at the senior figures, all they had done the citizens know. Today they're forming a coalition, and they're saying they're working for reform. It's a joke! The key question is whether the coalition is accepted by the public rather than the international partners. I think we have to experience this coalition without holding onto what people say," another member of PPM said.

The reaction of the Government will soon be made public. It is a given that the political arena will shift. However, there is not much aspiration attached to the coalition; there are more questions and confusion and doubt. The coalition has to be accepted by the public more than the international partners.

JP in the coalition?

In the 2013 elections, all contenders rushed to gain the backing of JP and JP Leader Qasim Ibrahim in the second round. JP has not made an official comment regarding the coalition.

A senior party official, on the condition of anonymity said to Avas that JP will not be taking part in the coalition. He quoted the bitter past experiences of the coalition as the sole reason for refusing an additional coalition.

"Twice we have experienced the bitter consequences of a coalition. We gained nothing. Then again we have to look at who is heading the coalition. There is no one in that coalition that the Party trusts. We will be working with the Government on national development projects, but with certain conditions," he said.

A presidential candidate from coalition for 2018?

Then the question is whether the coalition will bring out a Presidential candidate for the next elections in 2018. When think of a candidate, the figures at the front of the coalition are polarizing figures, incapable of uniting all behind the coalition. Majority of the coalition members have in the past switched political alliances at whim. Given the current nature of the Maldives, it is impossible to unite all behind one rally.

An official of MDP, also on the condition of anonymity, said to Avas the coalition has not yet made a decision on whether the coalition will contend in the 2018 elections.

"The purpose of the United Opposition Coalition is to make the Government more accountable and transparent as a responsible opposition. We want to first ensure there is a free election," he said.

Whatever the future holds for the coalition will be seen in the coming days. Whether the coalition achieves its purposes will also be seen.