Changes in the political sphere is an expected aspect part of rival political figures and a multi-party democratic system. It is an interesting feature of a multi-party democratic system. The only astounding aspect would be if the political system did not generate what is called a bell curve shape. Therefore, the resignation of Umar Naseer from the position of Home Minister was not a surprise. Umar Naseer, the biggest rival to the President and one of the most sincere cabinet Ministers, resignation is a clear sign the political bell curve is functioning properly.
Based on the current situation, several questions arise over the relationship between President Maumoon and President Yameen. The bigger question that is trumping ideology and politics is whether there is any political frustration between the two. If that is the case, then Umar is a clear contender to rise out from PPM.
Umar has to undergo an additional litmus test to determine whether he is a challenger to the President. Following the challenges Umar had posed President Yameen during PPM primaries, Umar remained untested on how his political strength had increased over the years. However, based on what we can see, we can clearly determined that Umar will not be a trigger on President Yameen as he does not espouse such political views.
Nevertheless, Umar remains a key figure in the political sphere. He cuts a starkly different figure compared to the rest of the political movers and shakers in the country. At the time of his resignation, the opposition figures had formed a coalition under the banner "Maldives United Opposition". The in-exile Opposition is now contending small tests on how they can impact on the country's political sphere. Judging by the past, these tests are extremely minor. A figure like Umar resigning would be a strong political weapon on the political arena. If taken at the right moment, then he will become an invaluable leverage.
The question is whether the opposition would have the guts to make Umar a strong player in their coalition. Would the coalition have it in them to make him the main player and score against the President?
A PPM MP said that Umar is a solid political card. A courageous person. A person of that caliber leaving a senior cabinet position is a huge loss. The coalition has to work to cover that loss. But his resignation is hardly likely to become a boon for the opposition. The formation of a new MDP from this is even more unlikely.
"For the opposition this is a moment to celebrate. We saw various members of opposition lauding this on social media. But his resignation offers no political gravitas to the opposition. This at best is a moment the opposition can smile at," he said, on the condition of anonymity.
Other political analysts say that Umar's resignation was not a concerning issue. Umar and President Yameen are political contenders, both of them at loggerheads over political issues. Umar's views and President Yameen's political ideologies and stances and actions clashed. One of the key examples is the monicon order issue.
"Umar was a sincere, courageous person in fulfilling his mandate as the position demanded. But these two are strong opponents. Their drive comes from a desire to go to the top of leadership, its very clear. We can see that both of them want to end this rivalry," he said.
He cited the war between Iran and Iraq. The war had lasted years and both sides wanted to bring an end to it. Iraq said they will stop the war when peace talks begin. Iran said peace talks will begin once the war is over. The two excuses conclude at the same time. Therefore, President Yameen asking for Umar's resignation and Umar saying that he is resigning is something that both of them want.
"So I believe that the two excuses met at the right time. Operationally the decisions did not tally up to the right time for the two," he said.
A member of MDP said that Umar was the strongest and the most reliable person for President Yameen today and tomorrow is Umar.
He said that even though Umar had left the Government due to political rivalry he was still a Yameen man. He said that it was inconceivable the opposition will bank up with Umar. And its not something Umar would want either.
"I believe the opposition is not fit for Umar's white rope. He is saying that as well. So him resigning is not beneficial to the opposition," he said.
Umar is a strong character, patriotic and sincere. He sticks to his word and implements the mandate. He became a big fish in political game due to the principles he had adhered to. He has become a trusted brand in the country's political sphere.
However, Umar is not an unpredictable politician. He is a predictable politician, with strong morals. This is why he will not become an asset to the opposition. No predictable politician or political activity has been carried out in MDP or the MUO.
Umar's sentiments were similar to many analysts.
In an exclusive interview to Avas given about 20 days back, the then Minister Umar said the coalition was doomed to fail as Nasheed would find it difficult hand over leadership to another individual. Even though former Vice President Dr. Mohamed Jameel Ahmed was appointed as leader of the coalition, Umar said Nasheed would make a play for power later on and eventually, Dr. Jameel will become a sacrificial lamb.
"The coalition will not work. It is a foregone conclusion. First thing is who will lead the coalition, Nasheed will not be satisfied with a minor role in leading the coalition. Jameel is a sacrificial lamb, he will use Jameel, parade him on the center stage, then will make a play for leadership," Umar said.
"We saw this in 2007. We worked in that coalition. Nasheed was in that coalition, he first said he will not contest. No one seems to remember this fact. He said he will remain as Chairman, Chairperson. He was the first to run for the position. We all saw how Munawwar was kicked out from MDP," Umar said.
Perhaps this may not be realized. What is clear is that a Nasheed-Umar partnership is not likely. Like Umar said, the Nasheed tape is an old one he had viewed many times over. The new MUO is a fabrication and therefore, the resignation is not a bonus for the opposition.
