India's decision to pull out from this year's South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit in Islamabad, Pakistan in November came last night, with Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Bhutan quickly following suit. India has said "cross-border terror attacks" have created an environment that is "not conducive" for the meeting. Foreign ministry spokesperson Vikas Swarup tweeted, "Regional cooperation and terror don't go together. India pulls out of SAARC Summit in Islamabad."
Bangladesh had communicated its inability to attend to current SAARC chair Nepal, saying, "The growing interference in the internal affairs of Bangladesh by one country has created an environment which is not conducive to the successful hosting of the 19th SAARC Summit in Islamabad in November 2016."
Bhutan followed suit. A letter to SAARC chair said "The Royal Government of Bhutan shares the concerns of some of the member countries of SAARC on the deterioration of regional peace and security due to terrorism and joins them in conveying our inability to participate in the SAARC Summit, under the current circumstances."
Afghanistan said, "Due to the increased level of violence and fighting as a result of imposed terrorism on Afghanistan, the President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani with his responsibilities as the Commander in Chief will be fully engaged, and will not be able to attend the Summit."
SAARC is composed of eight member states of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, the Maldives, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The first four had announced their decision and the withdrawal from the November summit, and ensuring that it will have to be called off as SAARC operated on a consensus. This undoubtedly is a first in the body's 31 year history.
Prior to the decision, many political spectators and pundits had speculated whether the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will fly to Pakistan to attend the summit. The decision to not attend the summit hosted by Pakistan is a step in the right direction for Modi, a show of strength to back his statements.
PM Modi had also reviewed the crucial Indus Waters Treaty and according to sources could resort to deliberating on a move to downgrade Pakistan to a mere trading partner. Sartaz Aziz, adviser on Foreign Affairs to Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, said if India pulls out of the Indus Waters treaty, it will amount to "an act of war" and Islamabad is to petition the International Court of Justice.
Both Modi and his Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj, had been advocating and calling for Pakistan to be excluded from the international arena, citing close connection to terror elements. Minister Swaraj had used the United Nation General Assembly to criticize and condemn Pakistan. In her address, she said that "in our midst, there are nations that still speak the language of terrorism, that nurture it, peddle it, and export it. To shelter terrorists has become their calling card. We must identify these nations and hold them to account."
In an op-ed for BBC, Harsh V Pant, a Distinguished Fellow and Head of Strategic Studies at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi, and Professor of International Relations at King's College London, said that while Pakistan was "a nuisance", PM Modi had the mettle and guts to take on Pakistan.
In his op-ed, Pant says that "Mr Modi's own speech last week and Ms Swaraj's response to Nawaz Sharif at the UN reflects a sound understanding of not only the challenges facing India's Pakistan policy but also the opportunities that have emerged in recent years as a result of India's rising global stature."
With the support of Bhutan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh and their change to a global economic powerhouse, undoubtedly India has the bigger bargaining chip and leverage in the Pakistan issue. The rest of the nations in SAARC are hardly likely to go against India - at best the rest of the nations will take a neutral approach.
Last night's decision is a sign that India will continue to push the idea of South Asian regional cooperation even if it means that initiative will be carried out without Pakistan.
