Former president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom undoubtedly must be afforded every respect a former president truly deserves. But the underlining word would be 'former' which however, seems to be a word lost on the once strongman who ruled the archipelago for over three decades.
If one dares to venture a little deeper into the whole feud between Gayoom and his half brother -- incumbent president Abdulla Gayoom, it appears rather difficult to overlook that the elder Gayoom's primary grievance remains the alleged snub by his half brother over matters of the state.
Ruling party split
Gayoom has long bemoaned that president Yameen had refused to meet him despite repeated requests. Before the rift first emerged, Gayoom had publicly lamented that his younger half brother had not met him in over a year. The origin of the row could very well be traced to Gayoom's plea to ruling party lawmakers to vote down a government proposed amendment to the tourism Act.
However, close aides to president Yameen have claimed that cracks had begun to appear as soon as the younger Gayoom was sworn in 2013. The elder Gayoom had reportedly attempted to dictate the cabinet and appointments of key state officials.
After the futile attempt to sabotage the tourism Act amendment, Gayoom through his lawmaker son Faaris Maumoon then proceeded to disrupt every government move using the party charter as a pretext. When the party's disciplinary committee engineered a move to penalize Faaris, the elder Gayoom suspended the party's council and all internal committees to 'hijack' the ruling party.
The quite ugly, perverse and downright messy fallout between the two Gayooms reached a bitter end after the younger Gayoom was handed the party reins by a court order which was later backed by the appellate courts.
The blow prompted the elder Gayoom to withdraw the support for the government and has intensified his push to rally support of key political figures to his side -- even managing a few government lawmakers to join his cause.
Can pres Yameen secure re-election 'Gayoom-less'?
Understandably, opposition parties have been quick to exploit the rift between the Gayooms -- questioning the legitimacy of the government after almost every party of the once mighty coalition has dwindled to just one ally.
Supporters of the elder Gayoom claim that president Yameen needs his half brother's support to stand any chance of pulling off his re-election hopes in 2018.
The numbers however, do not seem to back such a grand claim. In 2013, though the then presidential hopeful Yameen took on former president Mohamed Nasheed -- arguably in his peak, was a lawmaker for over two decades he did not command nearly enough support needed to win a presidential elections.
In the fiercely contested first round, Gayoom only managed to secure just over 29 percent in the re-run of the first round for his half brother. Even if one assumes that the elder Gayoom had secured every single one of those votes -- which of course is being overly generous, the number is not quite one would expect of a former president who had ruled the country for over three decades.
President Yameen eventually won the runoff against Nasheed after rallying top political figures to his side. The deciding factor, arguably was the support of business tycoon and Jumhoory Party (JP) leader Gasim Ibrahim. To this day Gayoom claims he was pivotal to negotiating a deal with Gasim that saw the business tycoon back Yameen in the runoff. No one can argue that Gayoom was the one who had gone down to Gasim's residence to secure the deal when Nasheed was also reportedly vying for the support of the third placed candidate in the first round.
But it would rather far-fetched to assume Gasim, a seasoned politician in his own right would be naive enough to be swayed solely by the elder Gayoom's promises if his half brother won. Gasim would have most certainly been aware, who would ultimately be at the helm if Yameen won.
But the same fact to this very day seems to be lost on the elder Gayoom, The former strongman appears to be somewhat confused by the whole power dynamics. It seems Gayoom still cannot quite fathom he is no longer the president of the archipelago. The fact that through the years, he had gradually bled support seems a reality he cannot quite wrap his head around. The more president Yameen settled into his role as the leader of the country, the more impotent Gayoom seemed to feel. Ruling party rallies, subsequently became the only avenue for him to re-live the glory days -- refusing to offer president Yameen the honour of taking centre stage as he grandiosely entered the fray with his signature wave to the crowd.
Gayoom's loyalists continues to claim that he still commands the grass-root support of the ruling party. But the 'real' rally held recently -- for the first time without the elder Gayoom attracted thousands of ruling party supporters. Gayoom's faction and opposition alike were quick to accuse the government of 'forcing' civil servants and state owned company officials to attend the rally. However, the rally held in an island a week later offered an apt response to the accusations as thousands again flocked to the gathering -- without many civil servants or state owned company officials to 'force' in the islets.
Gayoom in his prime, quite sensationally lost the presidency to a mere political activist in 2013. Political analysts believe that the people wanted and voted for a change after a generation had only seen Gayoom as the president. Since then, Gayoom's support has gradually waned and no longer commands the kind of backing he once did as clearly highlighted in the 2013 presidential elections.
During a recent interview to Sri Lanka's 'The Island' newspaper, the former president shed some light into his continued efforts to cling to ruling party control. When asked if he would remain the ruling party leader without any powers, the elder Gayoom responded with a resounding "of course not."
The statement, though vague, shows that the ruling party remains the sole source of Gayoom to 'play pretend' as a peripheral figure in Maldives politics. However, the shadows of past allegations of autocratic rule, human rights abuses and corruption forever looming large, the former president is a spent force and his 'support' would only serve as 'dead-weight' for future political campaigns.
